The Capitol Report, produced by WisPolitics.com — a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics — provides a weekly analysis of issues being debated in Wisconsin state government. It is underwritten by the WNA and produced exclusively for its members. WisPolitics.com President Jeff Mayers is a former editor and reporter for the Associated Press and a former political writer for the Wisconsin State Journal.
By WisPolitics-State Affairs
Warning: you will be seeing more political ads this fall than four years ago, and they’ll be more difficult to avoid.
A new report from Kinetiq Political Insights projects at least $327 million will be spent on advertising in Wisconsin elections this fall, about double what was dropped on the midterm election four years ago. Key races: governor, the Third Congressional District and legislative contests.
The group — a political ad campaign intelligence platform — said that spending is just one component of its forecast that various entities will drop $10.4 billion on broadcast, connected TV, digital, cable and radio nationally this fall.
That includes a whopping $1 billion in Michigan, which has open races for governor and U.S. Senate, three U.S. House seats up for grabs and other contests on the ballot.
“What makes this midterm historically unusual is its proximity to presidential-level spending without a presidential race on the ballot,” the report noted, pointing out $11.2 billion was spent in 2024.
The report lists a range of $327 million to $416 million for Wisconsin this fall, depending on how some things shake out. Michael O’Brien, CEO of National Media Research, Planning & Placement, which helped launch Kinetiq, told WisPolitics that Wisconsin’s 2025 state Supreme Court race was a factor in the projected spending increase for the state, figuring many of the groups that played in that race will be back in the state for an open gubernatorial contest and the hotly contested Third CD in western Wisconsin, as well as down-ballot contests such as Assembly and Senate races.
He noted the Dem-aligned House Majority PAC has already announced reservations for the fall suggesting it’s laying down more than $5 million for the 3rd CD, while GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund has signaled $3.3 million for the seat of vulnerable U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden, R-Prairie du Chien.
The overall Wisconsin projection includes some $150 million to $175 million in the governor’s race, $40 million in the state’s congressional contests and another $100 million for down-ballot contests, including the battle for control of the state Legislature.
The report also projects a shift in where political spending will go this cycle with the biggest boost in connected TV/streaming services. While it counted $1.2 billion in such spending in 2022, it’s now projecting $2.7 billion this cycle.
O’Brien said the reason is simple — it’s where consumers are.
He said many have cut the cord with cable but continue to use streaming services, whether on TV or their phones.
“CTV, especially YouTube, is an endless pit of impressions,” O’Brien said. “You can target people all day long on multiple devices. The target-ability is down to the individual. That value is just going through the roof for campaigns.”
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