The Capitol Report, produced by WisPolitics.com — a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics — provides a weekly analysis of issues being debated in Wisconsin state government. It is underwritten by the WNA and produced exclusively for its members. WisPolitics.com President Jeff Mayers is a former editor and reporter for the Associated Press and a former political writer for the Wisconsin State Journal.
By WisPolitics-State Affairs
Straw polls are like popcorn. Political junkies can’t resist them.
WisPolitics has, since it started in 2000, frequently done straw polls at state conventions. The latest was June 13-14 at the state Democratic Party convention.
The news organization has never touted straw polls as the end-all, but one of many factors. When combined with scientific polling, fundraising, issue positioning and media presence, straw poll results help paint a more complete picture of a campaign and its appeal.
They show a campaign’s ability to organize and educate a group of influencers.
So with that context, the latest straw poll from the Dem convention showed Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez to be the favorite of party activists attending the gathering; state Rep. Francesca Hong just behind in second place.
Those who voted in the WisPolitics straw poll also backed former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the Dem presidential nomination in 2028.
For president, 102 of those participating in the straw poll, or 17.7%, said they backed Buttigieg for the Dem nomination in 2028. Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, was just behind at 101 votes, or 17.5%.
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker was third at 81 votes; no one else topped 50.
State Dem Party officials reported that 682 delegates and 359 guests attended the convention. Of those attending, nearly 60% cast votes in the straw poll.
In the governor’s race, 164 of those who voted in the straw poll, or 27.5%, backed Rodriguez, who served one term in the Assembly representing a Waukesha County seat before her election as lieutenant governor in 2022.
Hong, a democratic socialist in her third term in the Assembly, was second with 138 votes, or 23.1%.
State Sen. Kelda Roys, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2018, was third at 114 votes.
Democrats met in Madison—the hometown of Hong and Roys—for the convention.
Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who has been a frontrunner in public and private polling due in part to his 2022 U.S. Senate run, was sixth in the seven-person field with 41 votes.
What’s it all mean?
For the presidential race, it means less than the governor’s race poll because 2028 is so far away. It’s a very early indicator.
But in a late-breaking and crowded primary on Aug. 11, it could have a bigger impact, helping provide a boost to Rodriguez and certifying that Hong is indeed a real player. Pundits also wonder whether it could mean that Barnes’ scientific poll numbers are based mostly on name ID and not passionate support.
Barnes is downplaying his poor finish.
“If straw polls were an accurate representation of where the people of the state were, (neither) Jim Doyle nor Tony Evers would be governor of Wisconsin,” Barnes told reporters in Milwaukee.
Eight years ago, Evers, then the state schools superintendent, finished third in the WisPolitics straw poll conducted during the convention in Oshkosh.
Roys, D-Madison, topped the field with 23.3% while Evers was at 11.5% in the 10-person field.
Evers won the nomination with 41.8% of the vote that August, while
Roys finished in third place with 12.8%
Barnes declined to comment on what drove his performance, which has been mocked by Tiffany, a GOP congressman from Minocqua. He stressed polling shows he’s leading the race and said he’s focused on “taking the fight directly” to Tiffany, the expected GOP nominee, as well as preparing for the upcoming UPFRONT Dem gubernatorial debate July 28 on WISN-TV, a WisPolitics partner.
Will the straw poll predict a winner? Have some popcorn and watch the show.
For more, visit WisPolitics.com
The Capitol Report is written by editorial staff at WisPolitics.com, a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics, and is distributed for publication by members of the Wisconsin Newspaper Association.
Copyright © WisPolitics.com
Note: This column was updated on Wednesday, June 17 at 3:45 p.m.
