The Capitol Report, produced by WisPolitics.com — a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics — provides a weekly analysis of issues being debated in Wisconsin state government. It is underwritten by the WNA and produced exclusively for its members. WisPolitics.com President Jeff Mayers is a former editor and reporter for the Associated Press and a former political writer for the Wisconsin State Journal.
Tammy Baldwin squeaked out a victory to keep her U.S. Senate seat.
But political insiders say another real bright spot for Dems in Wisconsin — and maybe nationally — is what state Senate Democrats did.
They swept all five of the key races, beating two incumbents and widening their path to taking a shot in 2026 at flipping the majority.
Even with the new maps put in place earlier this year, Dems had no realistic way to take the Senate majority in 2024. There just weren’t enough competitive seats to undo a 22-11 GOP supermajority. So, Dems put their focus on defending state Sen. Brad Pfaff, D-Onalaska, and taking a shot at four GOP-held districts — including the two incumbents: GOP Sens. Duey Stroebel and Joan Ballweg.
Dropping the GOP majority to 19-14 was a must to be able to pull off a flip in two years. Instead, Senate Dems create a wider path to their goal by getting to 18-15. And with Donald Trump back in the White House — as distressing as it is for many Dems — it also means there could be a pro-Democratic environment coming two years from now that would make holding onto the majority a reach for Republicans.
In assessing the performance, insiders wonder how Senate Dems were able to do so well even as Trump won at the top of the ticket and Assembly Dems closed the gap, but failed to grab even some seats leaning their way under the new maps. Money, some answer.
WisPolitics had tracked more than $27 million pumped into the five races this fall by the week before the election, and that price tag is likely to go even higher once the final tab is in.
Dem Jodi Habush Sinykin and those backing her had a more than 3.5-to-1 advantage over Stroebel in the Milwaukee area’s 8th Senate District, with more than $10 million flowing into that contest. Habush Sinykin put an eye-popping $5 million on TV through her campaign, an advertising budget that would be healthy for a contested congressional campaign, let alone a single state Senate seat.
The same story played out in south-central Wisconsin’s 14th, where Dem Sarah Keyeski and those backing her put more than $4.4 million into the race, compared to the $2.4 million by Ballweg and those supporting her.
In the Green Bay area’s 30th, it was $4.6 million to help Dem businessman Jamie Wall compared to $1.8 million by GOP Allouez Village President Jim Rafter and his backers.
In the 18th, it was a little more even at $1.5 million put in by Dem Appleton Ald. Kristin Alfheim and those backing her, compared to almost $1.3 million by Appleton cancer Dr. Anthony Phillips and his supporters.
And in western Wisconsin’s 32nd, GOP Trempealeau County Supervisor Stacey Klein actually had a small advantage at $490,379 to the $392,061 backing Pfaff. But that race fell off the map early, and Pfaff comfortably won reelection.
Money was definitely a factor, insiders conclude.
But so was candidate quality, some say. Rafter reported $878,613 in receipts through mid-October. Of that, $837,459 came from committees, including the campaign arm of Senate Republicans, not exactly what you want to see in a highly competitive race.
Insiders note Dems focused on abortion in a string of races up and down the ballot this fall, but it didn’t seem to trump the economy and other issues weighing on voters.
That’s not the case with Ballweg and Stroebel. Both did straight-to-camera ads in the closing days of the race insisting they support IVF and birth control. Hardly a winning message when you’re running in a Dem-leaning seat — like Ballweg — or in a suburban Milwaukee one when your personal politics are far to the right of your new constituents — like Stroebel.
Maybe those ads would’ve helped earlier in the campaign to try beating back the abortion message before it took hold, some suggest. But when you’re on the defensive like that in the closing days, it’s too late.
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