The Capitol Report, produced by WisPolitics.com — a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics — provides a weekly analysis of issues being debated in Wisconsin state government. It is underwritten by the WNA and produced exclusively for its members. WisPolitics.com President Jeff Mayers is a former editor and reporter for the Associated Press and a former political writer for the Wisconsin State Journal.
Wisconsin is not going to vote the way it did in 2020, when some 2 million absentee ballots were cast during COVID-19.
But absentee and early in-person voting will still be an important piece of the puzzle. Activists on both sides are working furiously to get their voters to complete ballots before Nov. 5, Election Day.
Recent absentee ballot numbers from the Elections Commission showed 593,550 requested as of mid-October. By comparison, at the same point in 2020, voters had requested nearly 1.4 million.
Some try to look for signs in the data for any change in mail-in voting, which has traditionally favored Dems. But it’s nearly impossible to compare 2024 to 2020, some argue, because Wisconsin voters are returning to their “normal” voting habits of largely going to the polls in person compared to casting ballots during a global pandemic.
That’s where Oct.22 becomes such a key piece of this fall’s equation. It’s no coincidence that former President Barack Obama was scheduled in Madison for the first day of early in-person voting. Dems would love nothing more than to get those who attend his event — particularly college students — to head right to their nearest early voting site to have their ballot banked for Kamala Harris well ahead of Election Day.
Meanwhile, state GOP Chair Brian Schimming has been urging the party faithful for months to head to the polls early so Republicans can focus their efforts on persuading more casual voters to turn out and cast their ballots for Donald Trump.
Turning Point USA, though, is taking a different approach to the early vote, and it’s one that some believe could make or break the election for Trump if it comes down to a turnout game.
Rather than chase casual voters, Turning Point has put its focus on finding those who like Trump but wouldn’t normally head to the polls to vote for him — or anyone. That focus on low propensity voters cuts against the grain. The argument for that approach — it’s hard to see many of those who haven’t committed to Trump yet to suddenly embrace the former president after watching him in the political realm for the last nine years.
The better bet is to find those who like Trump, but just need the encouragement to turn out. Some are skeptical, noting those voters’ track record of staying home on Election Day makes it hard to see them suddenly motivated to hit the polls.
But if it works, Turning Point will have proved there’s a different way to go about things. Insiders on both sides see the Dem turnout operation as stronger — and better funded — than what’s happening on the GOP side. It’s also battle-tested after high-profile elections year in and year out.
In an environment where every single vote seems to matter, some are watching to see if the college campuses that were largely empty in the fall of 2020 due to COVID-19 can be fertile territory to goose turnout in 2024.
Madison is a prime example of that focus, some note. Dane County in general has become a turnout machine for Dems.
In 2020, Joe Biden got 75.5% of the vote there after Hillary Clinton got 70.4% out of the county in 2016. But it got even bluer two years ago as Dem Gov. Tony Evers hit 78.6%. If Harris can match — or exceed — Evers’ number, it could give her a cushion to overcome any improvements Trump can produce in rural areas of the state.
Conversely, if Turning Point’s effort on college campuses bears fruit in Dane County and Trump hits 25%, that could seal the deal for him statewide, insiders say.
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