Democrats swamping GOP on airwaves but not in the polls

The Capitol Report, produced by WisPolitics.com — a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics — provides a weekly analysis of issues being debated in Wisconsin state government. It is underwritten by the WNA and produced exclusively for its members. WisPolitics.com President Jeff Mayers is a former editor and reporter for the Associated Press and a former political writer for the Wisconsin State Journal.

President Joe Biden and his Democrat allies enjoyed a more than 18-to-1 advantage in ad spending in Wisconsin over the past 18 months, even as polls have shown little movement among state voters in his race with Donald Trump, according to Ad Impact.

It begs the question from insiders: What’s going to happen when Trump and his Republican friends start to return fire in earnest through paid media?

The first real taste of that had been slated to start in late July, when the pro-Trump super PAC Preserve America was to begin its Wisconsin buy. But the shooting in Pennsylvania that injured Donald Trump days before Republican National Convention in Milwaukee could impact the timing. AdImpact has tracked $11.4 million reserved by the group, which has said it plans to spend $100 million overall this cycle.

But so far in Wisconsin, Biden and his allies have largely had the — paid media — airwaves to themselves.

Biden and Democrats have spent $27.6 million on buys through July 9, including $14.1 million by the president’s campaign.

By comparison, GOP groups have only spent $1.5 million. And nearly a third of that is the $488,603 that the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers Association PAC has spent hitting Biden over EPA standards the group says will take away Americans’ cars.

Those figures include TV, radio and digital buys that AdImpact had tracked as of early on July 12.

The number of ads that have been viewed — measured by gross ratings points — was an even more stark advantage for Democrats. They’ve put up 53,000 gross ratings points, compared to just 1,750 on the GOP side.

There’s not nearly the spending edge for Democrats in the U.S. Senate race.

Between Jan. 1, 2023, and July 9, U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Madison, and her allies had spent $28.5 million. That includes $17.9 million by the two-term incumbent.

By comparison, GOP businessman Eric Hovde and those backing him had spent $21.6 million. That includes $12.5 million by the candidate.

In terms of gross ratings points, Baldwin and Dems put up 70,895, compared to 67,168 by Hovde and GOP groups.

The Capitol Report is written by editorial staff at WisPolitics.com, a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics and is distributed for publication by members of the Wisconsin Newspaper Association.

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