The Capitol Report, produced by WisPolitics.com — a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics — provides a weekly analysis of issues being debated in Wisconsin state government. It is underwritten by the WNA and produced exclusively for its members. WisPolitics.com President Jeff Mayers is a former editor and reporter for the Associated Press and a former political writer for the Wisconsin State Journal.
By WisPolitics-State Affairs
The Democratic primary for governor has taken some dramatic twists and turns:
–Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez out of the race after her campaign implodes over financial issues.
–Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley back in with the endorsement of two-term Gov. Tony Evers.
–Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes out of the race amid questions about his personal life.
–And now state Rep. Francesca Hong of Madison the poll leader going into the final sprint before the Aug. 11 primary.
Six months ago, many insiders dismissed Hong’s chances of winning the Dem nomination for governor, saying the Madison lawmaker had a low ceiling. They saw her as a novelty that held some attraction for the far left of the party’s base but thought that appeal ultimately would fade away as voters rallied around one of her better known — and more mainstream — rivals.
Instead, she’s turned in what many say is the most impressive campaign of anyone in the Dem field because she hasn’t played it safe by focusing on electability and instead has been connecting to the base on the issues that most concern them. And the latest batch of polling from late July showed she’s been consolidating support, not bleeding it.
Polling can be tricky in general, and that’s particularly true for spring races and primaries. The Marquette University Law School poll went back into the field to take a look at the primary with Rodriguez out of the race and Crowley back in.
Dem sources told WisPolitics some private polling largely matches what Marquette found: 38% of primary voters surveyed backed Hong, while 16% supported Barnes and 7% favored Crowley. Former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan and state Sen. Kelda Roys of Madison were backed by 2% each. When undecided voters were pushed to pick a candidate, Hong’s support jumped to 46%, while Barnes was at 21%, Crowley 11%, and Brennan and Roys at 4% each.
That poll came out on the heels of another survey released jointly by Main Street Action, which represents small business owners, and UpNorthNews, a progressive media outlet, that found Hong at 44%, Crowley at 15% and Barnes at 14%.
Some Dems opposed to Hong winning the nomination insist the numbers are flawed. But even they acknowledge she is leading the primary and there’s a narrow path to beat her. They also aren’t sure Barnes exiting the race will help Crowley close the gap.
That Main Street Action poll found 27% of Barnes’ voters said Crowley was their second choice, while 26% said it was Hong. Maybe Crowley’s chances would improve in a 1-on-1 contest with Hong, operatives say.
But insiders aren’t expecting the field to contract again. Brennan says he’s sticking in no matter what, as insiders see a candidate determined to use the final days of the race to say his piece about the issues facing Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Roys doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, either.
But that probably helps the anti-Hong effort because the Madison lawmaker is drawing from some of the same voters. Add it up, and many proclaim the race over, which leaves some Dems coming to grips with what they see as a tougher path to retaining the East Wing with Hong as their nominee. Meanwhile, Republicans are giddy at the prospects of Hong dragging down the entire Dem ticket this fall.
She is an opposition researcher’s dream, insiders say, and the Republican Governors Association is already starting to contrast her with likely GOP nominee Tom Tiffany, the Donald Trump-endorsed northern congressman. The group earlier launched an ad buy that many believed was intended to boost her with Dem primary voters.
A new video from the group likewise plays up her opposition to Trump’s policies while also saying Tiffany has delivered tax relief while the state lawmaker supports higher taxes on everything from gasoline to income taxes.
Republicans scoff at Hong’s attempts to downplay her past comments to defund the police after the only televised debate of the primary as she insisted to reporters in the spin room that it’s Republicans who have cut resources to law enforcement by refusing to adequately fund shared revenue. Dems, though, praise her line that to be tough on crime, you need to be tough on causes.
While GOP opposition researchers are almost licking their chops, others warn Tiffany beating Hong in November would be no sure thing — thanks largely to Trump. A poll from CNN puts his national job approval rating at 34%, AP-NORC had it at 33% and Quinnipiac 32%. Those numbers are in the same territory as his job approval in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, violent protest at the Capitol.
The recent Marquette poll had him at 40% among Wisconsin voters, down from 42% in May and his lowest approval rating going back to his first term. Those numbers can largely be attributed to Trump’s failure to drive down costs and his decision to get the United States involved in additional overseas conflicts after promising to fix inflation and avoid any new wars.
If Trump doesn’t turn things around by October and gas is back above $4 a gallon, some say, all bets are off — if national Dems believe Hong is worth an investment. If they decide she isn’t, they’ll likely move their resources first to Senate Dems and then to Assembly Dems in an attempt to prevent a GOP trifecta.
Tiffany is doing his best to leave a folksy impression with voters through his early ads with his media buy now topping $6 million, according to AdImpact.
But he co-sponsored legislation to impose a national abortion ban after a heartbeat is detected, he is joined at the hip with Trump and he is part of the House majority in Congress. And voters aren’t big fans of anyone in Washington, D.C. these days. The key, some argue, would be for national Dems to invest in Hong for at least the first few weeks after the primary to see if there’s a path to victory.
Beyond money, a second key for Hong would be how the general election matchup is framed, insiders say. If it becomes solely about Hong’s past comments and calls to defund the police, forget about it. But insiders say if Dems can make it more about affordability, Tiffany’s record and his allegiance to Trump, it could be a different dynamic. Either way, expect a nasty race.
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