The Capitol Report, produced by WisPolitics.com — a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics — provides a weekly analysis of issues being debated in Wisconsin state government. It is underwritten by the WNA and produced exclusively for its members. WisPolitics.com President Jeff Mayers is a former editor and reporter for the Associated Press and a former political writer for the Wisconsin State Journal.
By WisPolitics-State Affairs
It’s said that politics creates strange bedfellows. And some strange ads.
Witness a new ad to boost longtime GOP state Sen. Howard Marklein.
The southwestern Wisconsin lawmaker is Republicans’ best shot in the four targeted Senate seats this fall as they attempt to block Democrats’ effort to take control of the chamber. And insiders say as odd as it sounds, his best bet may be to ride the coattails of the retiring Dem Gov. Tony Evers. If the environment for Republicans is bad enough, some add it might be his only hope.
Marklein, R-Spring Green, has regularly run ahead of the top of the ticket, thanks to his work ethic both as a lawmaker and a campaigner, and he could need every bit of that this fall with a redrawn seat. Two years ago, Kamala Harris took more votes than Donald Trump in the redrawn seat by 1.1 percentage points while Tammy Baldwin topped her GOP challenger by 4.7 points — and that was in a bad year for Dems.
Now, gas is more than $4.50 a gallon in many parts of Wisconsin, and Trump’s numbers are in the 30s, leaving Dems licking their chops at the prospect of taking down the 16-year incumbent.
So, insiders take notice when the Jobs First Coalition, a group that regularly backs Republican candidates, does a mail piece and digital ad for Marklein that prominently feature Evers, who regularly polls as the most popular politician in Wisconsin, though he won’t be on the ballot this fall.
Both sides of the Jobs First Coalition mailer include a drawing of two hands shaking with the Capitol dome in the background and the phrase “Marklein & Evers” across the top. Across the bottom, it reads “Bipartisan Action for Wisconsin.” Meanwhile, one side features three pictures of Marklein at bill-signing events with the Dem governor touting 38 “Marklein bills” Evers has signed in the past four years.
“Working across the political aisle with Governor Tony Evers to deliver for YOU,” the mailer proclaims, delivering a message similar to one in digital ads the group has been doing praising Marklein, according to the Google Ads Transparency Center.
Dems see the effort as a sign of just how toxic the GOP brand has become in Trump’s second term. Insiders note legislative polling is particularly tricky. But when they see new surveys from the liberal A Better Wisconsin Together showing Trump upside down in GOP-held legislative seats, they don’t doubt it one bit.
The survey of the 17th SD found 38% of registered voters in the district had a favorable impression of the president, while 55% had an unfavorable one. The poll found the generic legislative ballot favored Dems 48-40, while 46% said they would vote for a general Dem, compared to 37% who said
they’d back Marklein.
Some Dems ask, how does any Republican escape that kind of drag from the president this fall? Some Republicans answer that you survive a wave by creating your own brand to float above the top of the ticket.
And they see the Jobs First Coalition ads as smart politics, not an act of desperation.
Voters don’t particularly care for either party right now, and they want politicians to work together. Touting the Marklein bills that Evers has signed into law fits perfectly into that desire, they argue.
Still, some look back at 2024, when many in the Capitol saw then-GOP Sen. Joan Ballweg, of Markesan, as the ideal candidate to survive a redrawn district that suddenly put her in a swing seat. But outspent $4.6 million to $2.9 million, according to a WisPolitics tally, she lost by 2.3 percentage points in a decent year for Republicans despite the strength of her name ID and her work ethic.
It has some wondering if Marklein is headed for a similar fate or if he can separate himself from the generic GOP ballot.
For more, visit WisPolitics.com
The Capitol Report is written by editorial staff at WisPolitics.com, a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics, and is distributed for publication by members of the Wisconsin Newspaper Association.
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