The Capitol Report, produced by WisPolitics.com — a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics — provides a weekly analysis of issues being debated in Wisconsin state government. It is underwritten by the WNA and produced exclusively for its members. WisPolitics.com President Jeff Mayers is a former editor and reporter for the Associated Press and a former political writer for the Wisconsin State Journal.
By WisPolitics-State Affairs
Call it the tale of two swing districts.
Two Republican members of Congress in Wisconsin. Two different personalities. Two very different outlooks for the fall.
One is Derrick Van Orden, the 3rd Congressional District representative in Prairie du Chien. The other is Bryan Steil, the 1st District representative in Janesville.
Van Orden is highly vulnerable. Steil seems safe.
Why?
Some analysts say one reason is the stark difference in personalities.
The combative Van Orden, a former Navy SEAL, wears his Donald Trump loyalty on his sleeve and swears a lot. Steil, an ex-member of the UW system board of regents, is in House leadership and displays a tone reflective of his background as a corporate lawyer.
Whatever the reason, Van Orden is fighting to keep his seat.
One recent piece of evidence for insiders is fundraising. He was out-raised by his chief challenger in back-to-back quarters. By a lot.
Dem Rebecca Cooke, in her third bid for western Wisconsin’s 3rd District, recently reported raising $2.4 million during the first quarter of 2026. That easily tops the $1.3 million that Van Orden pulled in, and Cooke also jumped ahead of him for cash on hand with $4.4 million in the bank at the end of March, compared to Van Orden’s $3.8 million. And Cooke is doing it largely through individual donors, reporting nearly $1.7 million from them, including $491,434 from those giving $200 or less.
Republicans have constantly banged the drum that Cooke isn’t the small-town waitress who grew up on a dairy farm that she portrays herself to be. She worked as a Dem fundraiser before launching her first bid for the 3rd CD in 2022, and she continued to do work as an operative last year. As much as they want to paint it as a liability, she’s putting that experience to good use, insiders say.
Operatives sometimes complain how difficult it is to get candidates to do call time. But they see Cooke’s continued fundraising success — she also out-raised Van Orden over the last three months of 2025 — as the sign of a grinder who’s willing to do the work.
Her hard-charging ways have alienated some local officials in the district who haven’t embraced Cooke as she faces a Dem primary she’s expected to win. There’s also been a string of campaign staff departures.
Some take that as a sign Cooke’s too tough on staff. Others say if that’s the case, she wouldn’t be the first candidate who could be a difficult boss. And most of that insider gossip never reaches voters.
While some Dems may have concerns about various aspects of her as a candidate, they’re largely going to keep quiet due to the sheer volume of money she’s raising, some say.
And they see her with a darn good chance of beating Van Orden this fall. He was the only GOP incumbent in Wisconsin’s congressional delegation in 2024 to underperform Trump in their district. The president not being on the ballot, a bad environment brewing for Republicans, Van Orden’s own rough reputation and Cooke’s fundraising may be the right combination to flip the seat this fall.
Van Orden, meanwhile, has been upping his presence in local media. While his social media feed is typically full of barbs at Dems or anyone who dares criticize Trump, there have been a lot more posts lately about tax cuts, farm policy and media coverage of appearances in the district – sure signs that he’s trying to soften his image ahead of a tough reelection.
It’s a different story in the 1st CD, where insiders see a tough road for Democrats — unless the wave Dems hope for is so big that it doesn’t matter who’s on the ballot with a “D” next to their name.
The latest round of campaign finance reports is a reminder of the financial gulf between Steil and his current crop of Dems challengers.
He outraised them 4-to-1 over the first three months of 2026 and reported a $5.6 million warchest — best in the state’s congressional delegation.
With the current field, some Dems have held out hope that a better alternative would emerge. After all, former state Revenue Secretary Peter Barca launched his bid in mid-April two years ago.
And just in case someone better comes along, Opportunity Wisconsin has attacked Steil with nearly $1.7 million in ads since early 2025, according to AdImpact, in what’s seen as an effort to drive up his negatives. To some, the group is just flushing money down the toilet with almost no chance of a new map ahead of the 2026 elections.
As bad as the environment looks, Dems don’t seem to have a candidate who can capitalize on it, and Steil is well stocked financially to dispatch whomever emerges and still have a healthy bank account left over just in case an opportunity opens in 2028 to run for the U.S. Senate.
But a Dem source tells WisPolitics that Milwaukee Ald. Peter Burgelis has been making calls about a run. For groups eager to see a competitive race, his entrance would be a welcome event, and some believe he would bring real money into the race as a gay candidate who could appeal to LGBTQ+ donors nationally, as well as groups who want to take a run at Steil.
But he doesn’t live in the district, which covers Milwaukee’s southern suburbs as well as Racine and Kenosha while spreading west to pick up parts of Waukesha and Walworth counties, as well as the area around Janesville and Beloit. Backers downplay the residency issue. He doesn’t have to live in the district to run for the seat.
And will voters care with Trump seeming to drive everything about the coming environment this fall? Burgelis, who served on the Milwaukee County Board from 2022-24, has worked as a mortgage lender since 2004, and he’d bring more credibility to the race than any of the Dem contenders now running, insiders say.
Some say even if Burgelis wasn’t successful, he might force Steil to spend some of that $5.6 million in the bank — and possibly put a marker down about another run if the seat is redrawn to pick up the south side of Milwaukee.
For more, visit WisPolitics.com
The Capitol Report is written by editorial staff at WisPolitics.com, a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics, and is distributed for publication by members of the Wisconsin Newspaper Association.
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