The Capitol Report, produced by WisPolitics.com — a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics — provides a weekly analysis of issues being debated in Wisconsin state government. It is underwritten by the WNA and produced exclusively for its members. WisPolitics.com President Jeff Mayers is a former editor and reporter for the Associated Press and a former political writer for the Wisconsin State Journal.
By WisPolitics-State Affairs
Next year Wisconsin voters will see the first open governor’s race since 2010 with Dem Gov. Tony Evers opting against a run for a third four-year term.
But contrary to conventional wisdom just a couple months ago, next year’s attorney general’s race is looking like a rematch from 2022: Josh Kaul vs. Eric Toney.
So much for conventional wisdom.
The broad expectation after Evers made his announcement in July was that Kaul, the incumbent AG who has been on the ballot with Evers in 2018 and 2022, would run for governor and be the anointed frontrunner.
But the longer Kaul didn’t jump in the governor’s race, the more the chatter spread that he wouldn’t run.
Kaul confirmed that in early October when he announced his intention to seek reelection as attorney general to continue his efforts to fight the Trump administration in the courts.
In a phone interview with WisPolitics, Kaul said personal reasons also factored into his decision to pass on a run for governor next year.
“I think this is a pivotal time for the nation,” Kaul said. “Some of our most basic rights are under threat. I think it’s really critical that we have an AG that will protect our freedoms and the rule of law.”
Kaul said he will focus his reelection campaign on investing in public safety, protecting the things that impact the quality of life and opportunities for Wisconsinites, and reproductive freedom. Kaul said he’s proud his name is on the state Supreme Court ruling that overturned an 1849 law that banned abortion except to save the life of the mother.
And his likely opponent? Enter Eric Toney — again.
Kaul beat the Fond du La County district attorney in 2022 by 35,000 votes as Evers won by 90,239.
Toney joined Kaul two years ago in calling for additional resources for the labs, only for the GOP-controlled Legislature to largely reject the AG’s request. In this budget, Kaul sought 19 additional positions. Evers proposed six in the budget he sent to the Legislature, but Republicans didn’t approve any new positions.
The Legislative Audit Bureau last year found the average turnaround time to complete an analysis increased from 39 days in 2019-20 to 58 days in 2022-23 even as requests for testing dropped 13%.
“I’m proud of the work that we’re doing there, but I’m going to continue to be an advocate for those resources that are needed for the lab,” Kaul said.
In the meantime, insiders are watching to see if Toney can avoid a GOP primary this time and how the national mood will play into a second go-around with Kaul.
If he avoids a primary, Toney will still have to worry about the strength of the GOP gubernatorial nominee and how nationalized the race could become.
Businessman Tim Michels’ loss by 90,239 votes surely didn’t help Toney’s cause in 2022, insiders say. And while it was a midterm election with Joe Biden in the White House, the liberal furor over the U.S. Supreme Court overturning the right to an abortion produced a good Dem environment in Wisconsin.
Now with Trump back in the White House, the question is how the president’s standing with voters will impact Republicans up and down the ticket.
Some argue Toney also has an interesting choice to make about how to approach the president. Does he seek to nationalize the race — and pump up Trump supporters — by vowing to end each and every one of Kaul’s lawsuits against the president’s administration? Or does he cast Kaul as too preoccupied with national fights to take care of issues like the turnaround rate at the state crime lab?
Along with the lab, Toney could seek to knock Kaul on immigration with the fights Trump has waged across the country. And he could point to the Dem incumbent’s appeal of a ruling requiring the state to ensure no one in the country illegally is on Wisconsin’s voter registration list to drive home that point.
Toney has his issues, too, after he was dinged in the 2022 campaign for declining to rule out prosecuting abortion cases under an 1849 law that had been interpreted as banning all abortions except to save the life of the mother.
While the law has now been overturned, some still see potency in the issue, particularly with Planned Parenthood halting abortions at three clinics, citing passage of provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Insiders also note winning a third term is no cakewalk in Wisconsin unless you’re a member of Congress or the U.S. Senate. Former GOP Gov. Tommy Thompson and former Dem AG Jim Doyle did it, but former GOP Gov. Scott Walker failed in his bid to serve 12 years in the office.
Some Republicans are bullish on Toney’s chances. He’s got additional time in office under his belt, served as president of the Wisconsin District Attorney’s Association and will have the support of local prosecutors across the state.
Still, others question the public’s appetite for rematches. If 2026 follows the pattern of midterms being bad for the party in power in the White House and if the power of incumbency is still an advantage even when seeking a third term, Kaul starts as the insiders’ favorite.
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The Capitol Report is written by editorial staff at WisPolitics.com, a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics, and is distributed for publication by members of the Wisconsin Newspaper Association.
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