The Capitol Report, produced by WisPolitics.com — a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics — provides a weekly analysis of issues being debated in Wisconsin state government. It is underwritten by the WNA and produced exclusively for its members. WisPolitics.com President Jeff Mayers is a former editor and reporter for the Associated Press and a former political writer for the Wisconsin State Journal.
By WisPolitics.com
Republicans in general scored a win when the state Supreme Court rejected requests to redraw the state’s congressional map.
Insiders see the Janesville Republican as perhaps the biggest beneficiary. Under the current 1st Congressional District lines, he’s proven tough to beat, and insiders believed Dems’ best chance of ending his winning streak would be a redrawn seat.
Now, all the attention in next year’s congressional races will turn to fellow Republican Derrick Van Orden in western Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, where insiders have expected a race regardless of whether the maps changed.
Steil’s winning streak has been fairly consistent, topping 54% in each of his four bids, whether under the maps put in place for the 2022 elections or the old district that was a touch more Republican.
Add in the $2.75 million he had in the bank to end April and the perception that he’s a level-headed, even-keeled lawmaker in a world of extremes. Even Dems acknowledge beating him under the current lines would be tough at best.
That’s why some in Steil’s world were watching so closely as the court was asked to redraw the state’s congressional map, even if it was considered a legal long shot.
One, the court had already unanimously rejected a request in early 2024 to redraw the lines. Two, even if the liberal majority had a change of heart, legal observers saw the conservative supermajority on the U.S. Supreme Court as a potential backstop against any retooling of the lines ahead of 2026.
With the district set to remain as is, Dem Randy Bryce — who lost to Steil by a dozen points under the old map in 2018 — is back for another shot.
Insiders expect other Dems to kick the tires. But their attention is largely looking westward.
It’s been an often-cited statistic that Van Orden, R-Prairie du Chien, was the only GOP incumbent in the delegation to run behind Donald Trump’s numbers in their district last fall.
And he’s done little to moderate his image or reach across the aisle since elected to the seat in 2022. That has him on Dems’ target list for 2026, though insiders say it would’ve been an even more interesting race on their end had the lines shifted a little to drop some of the pro-Trump territory in western Wisconsin to perhaps pick up a little more of the area around deep blue Dane County.
Dems largely see Rebecca Cooke — who lost to Van Orden by 2.7 percentage points in 2024 — as the party’s best bet to flip the seat next fall. But she’s getting a free pass.
Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge and former Eau Claire Ald. Laura Benjamin are also seeking the Dem nomination, though insiders doubt either will be able to raise the resources to make much noise in the primary.
State Sen. Brad Pfaff, who lost to Van Orden in 2022, had been considered a possible candidate. But the Onalaska Dem endorsed Cooke, another sign that Dems are coalescing around her.
Some insiders believe Dems will eventually get Van Orden, whether it’s this cycle or another one.
Political figures that bombastic usually don’t play well over the long run in swing-y districts. Insiders also believe this is likely Cooke’s last shot to be the one to pull it off after losing to Van Orden in 2024 and coming in second in the Dem primary in 2022.
Lose this one and try to run again, they say, and you get labeled with the perennial loser tag that makes it harder to get donors excited about your campaign.
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