By Bill Barth
It’s another year, and all things seem filled with renewal and possibility.
Except, sadly, the ongoing record of futility racked up by the super-secret cabal known only as Forecasters Anonymous.
Super-secret in order to spare its members the acute embarrassment of publicly showcasing their mass ignorance.
Each December the group gathers for lunch and a stab at predicting events of the coming year.
The members are very good at eating, as their waistlines attest. Not so good at prognosticating, as their unbroken record – stretching over decades – of abysmally wrong predictions proves.
Most of the names of those in attendance would be familiar to our community’s readers. At least old readers. Forecasters members are getting a bit long in the tooth, but they have been (or, is it has-been?) longtime leaders in industry, finance, business, academia and other fields. All have made their mark in the region, and never let anyone forget it.
Even though, judging from the hapless predictions they make, success surely arrived more out of luck than skill.
To prove the point, the best score on last year’s predictions was under 70% correct – a low D or high F, by classroom standards. Most scored below 50%. The “winner” of what is called the
Completely, Hopelessly, Confused Award got just 40% of the predictions right.
Consider some of the silly forecasts for 2023, made at the December 2022 luncheon:
- Almost everyone expected a recession in 2023. Didn’t happen.
- They did expect the Packers to have a better record than the Bears, though both teams pretty much suck.
- Aaron Rodgers would take the opening-day snap for the Green Bay Packers. In fact, he lasted four plays for the New York Jets.
- Gas prices were expected to be about a dollar higher than they are.
- Liberals would not take over the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which they in fact did by beating the conservative candidate by double digits.
- Mortgage rates would be a reasonable 5% or so. Tell that to wannabe home-buyers.
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom would be running for president for the Democrats. Nope. Old Joe is still saddled up.
- Doubt took over on a question about whether Wisconsin would legalize recreational or medical marijuana and tax it accordingly, like pretty much every other state around us. Hint: The parking lot at the dispensary just feet across our border with Illinois is filled with Wisconsin plates.
And so it went. With that kind of sorry outcome, performance expectations for the 2024 predictions should be low. Nevertheless, the intrepid members of Forecasters Anonymous once more gave it their best. Here, for what it’s worth (not much), is a sampling of the group’s consensus opinions:
- Ground will not be broken for the Ho-Chunk casino complex approved for Beloit.
- Trump may be elected in November. Or, maybe Biden. Or, maybe somebody else. No matter who wins, though, the loser will graciously concede defeat. Really?
- But Tammy Baldwin and Bryan Steil will keep their jobs.
- Republicans will not win control of the Senate. And Democrats won’t win control of the House.
- The Dow will be between 37,000 and 38,000 at the end of the year. Which means, the market will be stuck where it is.
- Bucks fans, forget it. The Lillard trade will not bring a title.
- New Wisconsin legislative maps to replace the court-rejected gerrymandered ones will be in place for the primary election.
- Hunter Biden will be convicted of a felony.
- Trump may, or may not, be convicted. The group clearly has forgotten that old adage often attributed to the late, great Rock County Circuit Judge Edwin Dahlberg, about sometimes being in error, but never in doubt.
There’s more, but we have asked readers to endure enough. Forecasters Anonymous will return next December to stuff bellies and blow the dust off infrequently exercised minds. Then we will report on how their predictions turned out.
Until then, hope springs eternal. Happy New Year.
Bill Barth is the former Editor of the Beloit Daily News, and a member of the Wisconsin Newspaper Hall of Fame. Write to him at bbarth@beloitdailynews.com.
