The Capitol Report, produced by WisPolitics.com — a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics — provides a weekly analysis of issues being debated in Wisconsin state government. It is underwritten by the WNA and produced exclusively for its members. WisPolitics.com President Jeff Mayers is a former editor and reporter for the Associated Press and a former political writer for the Wisconsin State Journal.
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The breadth of Democrat Gov. Tony Evers’ reelection victory is gaining recognition.
And the failure of U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes to keep up with Evers in key areas also is becoming apparent.
While Evers won three of the state’s congressional districts and beat Tim Michels on Nov. 8 and lost a fourth by a tiny margin, Barnes won only the state’s two bluest districts (trailing Evers in both) and lost the state’s two swing seats to incumbent Republican Ron Johnson. The Oshkosh Republican beat the Democrat lieutenant governor by almost 27,000 votes to earn his third six-year term.
The numbers underscore that Democrats may need a strong performance from their presidential nominee in 2024 to help them be competitive in the two swing districts: the 3rd Congressional District in western Wisconsin and the 1st Congressional District in the southeastern corner of the state. Republicans will hold the 3rd Congressional District given the victory of Derrick Van Orden, who will take over early next year for longtime Democrat U.S. Rep. Ron Kind of La Crosse. Cong. Bryan Steil, R-Janesville, won reelection in the 1st Congressional District.
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In addition to the presidential race, Wisconsin voters also will weigh in on another U.S. Senate race as Democrat incumbent Tammy Baldwin prepares for a reelection bid. Van Orden and Steil also will likely face intense challenges.
Recent Elections Commission’s certified results show Evers and Barnes both won the Milwaukee-based 4th Congressional District and the Dane County-dominated 2nd Congressional District.
Evers took 77.7 percent of the vote in the 4th — the most partisan of the state’s eight districts — while Barnes received 77 percent. In the 2nd, Evers hit 73.5 percent, while Barnes was at 71.8 percent.
In the 3rd, Evers bested Tim Michels by 0.5 percentage points, a margin of 1,455 votes. But Johnson won the district by 5.7 points.
In the 1st, Johnson won by 4.3 percentage points, while Evers lost it by 472 votes out of 302,703 cast.
Michels underperformed Johnson in the four strongly Republican seats. Johnson won 63.2 percent in the 5th, 2.6 points better than Michels; 59.3 percent in the 6th, 2.8 points better; 61.3 percent in the 7th, 3.1 points better; and 58.8 percent in the 8th, 2.9 points better.
The maps used this fall were drawn by Evers under guidelines from the state Supreme Court that required those submitting proposals to take “a least change” approach to the districts GOP lawmakers drew in 2011 and then-Gov. Scott Walker signed it into law. The state Supreme Court selected the Evers maps, and the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a move by GOP lawmakers to overturn that ruling.
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