Insiders thought Fond du Lac District Attorney Eric Toney had a chance to win the GOP primary for attorney general even though he’d been vastly outspent by rival Adam Jarchow.
They just weren’t expecting Chippewa Falls attorney Karen Mueller to be the one who paved the path for Toney to pull out the win.
Mueller — who spent $40,000 on her campaign and ran on a platform that included prosecuting doctors who refused to prescribe ivermectin to dying COVID-19 patients — took 26 percent of the vote in the Aug. 9 primary.
RELATED: Read more Capitol Report columns from WisPolitics.com
It was exactly what Toney needed to pull off a 3,500-vote win over Jarchow, the former state lawmaker. Now, insiders say, Toney needs to find a way to fix his money woes — and fast — because Democrat Attorney General Josh Kaul and his $2 million war chest are up next.
Toney raised less than $200,000 for his AG bid through late July. While Jarchow had pulled in nearly $542,000 this year as donors and several legal figures got behind the idea of a crusading conservative serving as the state’s top cop, even though the former lawmaker had no
experience as a prosecutor. Insiders long thought that was a significant hurdle for Jarchow to overcome. Voters in Wisconsin have come to associate being AG with being a prosecutor, even though it’s more about managing a sprawling law firm than anything else.
Toney, meanwhile, committed the cardinal sin with some in the conservative base of filing — and later dropping — charges against those who violated Gov. Tony Evers’ original stay-at-home order. As the campaign wore on, questions also arose about whether Toney was an anti-Trumper, another no-no with some in the base.
But often when Toney and Jarchow went head-to-head at county party straw polls or the GOP state convention for the party’s endorsement, it was the prosecutor who fared better.
To insiders, it was a sign that Toney was connecting with voters when he had the chance to get his message before them. They just weren’t sure he had the money to overcome Jarchow’s financial advantage, particularly with nearly $1 million spent by outside groups on independent expenditures to boost the former lawmaker. Enter Mueller.
The attorney was considered a non-factor who’d maybe pull in the single digits on election day. After all, many had written her off as a fringe candidate.
Some insiders see it as a sign of where the base is when it comes to COVID-19 and the “stop the steal” movement. Others aren’t so sure.
Yes, some yards had signs touting both Rep. Tim Ramthun — the loudest advocate for decertification among the GOP gubernatorial candidates— and Mueller.
But it’s doubtful that $40,000 was enough to communicate a message to voters.
It’s just as likely to some that a segment of primary voters weren’t happy with either Jarchow or Toney and picked the only other option on the ballot. With the primary behind him, insiders wonder just how much help Toney will need to take down Kaul.
To some, the race remains all about the top of the ticket. Even with his money, some argue, Kaul will have a tough time creating a unique identity beyond the generic ballot contest. There will just be too much noise in the air.
To others, though, Toney has yet to prove he can fundraise, and it remains to be seen just how deep the Republican Attorneys General Association is going to dig to help a challenger candidate who’s such a poor fundraiser when there are other contested races around the country to worry about. Meanwhile, it’s a second stinging loss for Jarchow. He lost a plus-17 Trump district by 10 points in a 2018 special election for the state Senate and came up short despite having every financial component of the race in his favor.
For more, visit WisPolitics.com
The Capitol Report is written by the editorial staff at WisPolitics.com, a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics, and is distributed for publication by members of the Wisconsin Newspaper Association.
Copyright © WisPolitics.com
